hurricanesfandomcom-20200216-history
Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/October
October Week One AoI: Near Hispanola I haven't really been keeping tabs on all the Cape Verde systems, so I'm not sure if this is part of an earlier AoI. It was in the Central Atlantic just a day or two ago. It could strengthen as it heads through the warm Caribbean waters, but heading into the Gulf seems unlikely due to the cold water, shear, and dry air there. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:36, 3 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: East of Bermuda I know it's under a heavy shear environment, but maybe it will emerge north of the high, then sink southward into warmer waters as the Central Atlantic trough cuts the Bermuda high in half. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:00, 4 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: North Central Atlantic A lot of models seem to be predicting formation. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:00, 4 October 2008 (UTC) :Up as low-risk on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:24, 6 October 2008 (UTC) 15L. NANA AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde It's about to come off the coast, and many major models are predicting formation and have been for the past few days. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:00, 4 October 2008 (UTC) :Anyway, guys, will 2008 repeats 2004/2006/2007 in terms of inactivity in October? Storm's Eye 21:16, 4 October 2008 (UTC) 97L.INVEST Now an invest and medium-risk on NHC. Wow, this actually has a shot. This would be pretty far east for this time of the year if it developed. Bob rulz 14:22, 10 October 2008 (UTC) :Whoops, wrong AoI, I moved it into the other one. Will probably be pulled up into the gap in the high and into oblivion. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:58, 10 October 2008 (UTC) ::Um, no...I'm pretty sure it was at the right system before. NOTE: Actually, on second thought, they might be the same systems if it hadn't even come off the coast yet at this time. Can anyone try to clarify this? I know it was at the right AoI before but they might be the same waves. Bob rulz 05:34, 11 October 2008 (UTC) :::No, this is a merger of this AoI and the other one NE of French Guinea. The other AoI, formerly east of the Lesser Antillies, is now in the Eastern Caribbean and up as low-risk on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:00, 11 October 2008 (UTC) ::::It's up to high risk now from NHC. --Patteroast 12:21, 12 October 2008 (UTC) :::::NRL has it up as TD 14. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:39, 12 October 2008 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nana Now officially a TS, although rapid weakening is predicted similar to Josephine but faster. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:53, 12 October 2008 (UTC) :Considering that forecast, I'm surprised they even named it. I'd say either they were close to not naming it at all, or when the report comes out, it'll have been a depression earlier. --Patteroast 23:43, 12 October 2008 (UTC) ::Probably the latter, but not much earlier. Nana survived the abortion but her parents are looking for a big, fluffy pillow to shove in her face. If this storm lives another 36 hours, I'll be very impressed. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 03:55, 13 October 2008 (UTC) Week Two AoI: Marco Remnants (near Florida) There has been a cluster of storms hovering near the coast, drifting north, presumably the higher cloudtops left over from Marco, where as the LLC died the instant it hit land becase of it's size. But these storms sitting here over bath water, I'm worried a new circulation could spin up and hit the US gulf coast, I'm thinking LA-ish. -Winter123 17:08, 8 October 2008 (UTC) :I'm thinking I'm not at all concerned about it. I'm not even sure you'd need an umbrella down there. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:49, 10 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: Upper Level low sitting near Belize It's the low that helped marco to develop, but now i see outflow on the north side. It's dead stalled so we have time to watch. satellite of both -Winter123 17:08, 8 October 2008 (UTC) 90L. INVEST AoI: NE of French Guiana This developed from the same system that the one NW of CV developed from, but all the models I've been able to check are predicting development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:28, 8 October 2008 (UTC) 90L.INVEST Remember before Nana formed, there were 2 circulation centers? Well, the weaker one apparently still exists, and is firing thunderstorms directly over its center, all the while less than 300 miles south of TD Nana. Go figure. Anyway, NHC says it's going to be absorbed, but I'm not so sure. BAM models predict this thing will head west/southwest, but I'd rather wait for more reliable models before making any assumptions. |'C A I N E R||''ninety-one''| 19:27, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :Yes, and the other centre had an AoI as well. SWFMD models predicting it to drift into Caribbean. 2007Astro'sHurricane 19:40, 13 October 2008 (UTC) ::A deep burst of convection has made this system more organised than Nana. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:23, 13 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: NE of Colombia It's a disorganised but convective patch of thunderstorm activity, and some models are predicting development. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:28, 8 October 2008 (UTC) :Over South America now. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:46, 10 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: NW of Morocco Now, I'll probably get a ton of critisism for listing a subtropical-like and Meditteranean AoI in 30 kt of shear, but it's expected to emerge near the Canaries (ie. Winter's territory), as a low similar to the last one. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:28, 8 October 2008 (UTC) :I don't know what it is, but I know what it isn't and it isn't tropical. It's also over Morocco (hot sand isn't the same as hot water). -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 02:44, 10 October 2008 (UTC) 15L.OMAR See Omar's archive. AoI: East of Texas A large convective blob has developed, moving west. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:29, 12 October 2008 (UTC) 16L.SIXTEEN 99L.INVEST Move this if this invest has been mentioned earlier, I can't really keep track of them all. :P New invest, just off the coast of Nicaragua. It looks very circular at the moment. Could it end up as Paloma? --Patteroast 14:50, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :NHC has 99 at medium risk, on the danger graphic, and released a STDS that says, "CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT... AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD." --Patteroast 15:37, 13 October 2008 (UTC) ::Uhh, wow, the Atlantic has gotten interesting in a hurry. This thing's a little close to land and may move over Central America before it can do anything, but it looks pretty impressive on the satellite. Where the hell did it come from? -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 17:03, 13 October 2008 (UTC) :::I think it developed from the eastern flank from the earlier AoI near Colombia, while the western flank drifted into EPac and weakened. I won't take credit for this by moving it completely under the previous AoI because that would be vanity. However, I think it will turn west, pass just north of Honduras, pass over the northern part of Yucatan after strengthening to TS, then turn SW under influence of ridge into Campeche where it is still warm. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:53, 13 October 2008 (UTC) NHC now have it at high risk, models suggest it could hit Belize and perhaps even be a basin-crosser. - Salak 08:20, 14 October 2008 (UTC) Tropical Depression Sixteen Upgraded at the latest advisory and forecast to become TS Paloma in about 24 hours, assuming it stays over water. - Salak 15:14, 14 October 2008 (UTC) :That's a big assumption from what I understand. This thing looks like it could go either way. Land, however, appears to be the only inhibiting factor with this one. Recon data seems to indicate the storm is not as organized as originally thought. If the center stays offshore for the next 36-48 hours or so, it will probably reach tropical storm strength. If it comes ashore sooner than that, then chances are it won't get a name. And since the storm center (such as it is) is almost swimming distance from the shore, who knows what's going to happen. But Honduras needs brace themselves for a lot of rain. The Atlantic got interesting in a bleedin' hurry. If that South Carolina storm last month had gotten a name (as it should have), we'd be staring down the barrel of Rene right now. This has been a very active season. If that Carolina storm is upgraded in post-analysis (as it should be), this season would be the fifth most active on record and we still have plenty of time for more. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 21:48, 14 October 2008 (UTC) ::If its remnants can survive Guatemala, it may re-emerge in the Pacific and re-develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as some models are predicting. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:08, 14 October 2008 (UTC) :::Seems the location of the centre isn't as clear cut as was thought. Latest discussion discusses that while the satelite images are being used, the actual centre might be 45mi WNW. That'd put it further out to sea... - Salak 01:20, 15 October 2008 (UTC) ::::Looks like limited opportunity for intensification due to proximity to land. Fairly narrow window of time if this thing wants to become Paloma. Albireo 17:06, 15 October 2008 (UTC) :::::CMC takes it into Florida, while GFDL is depicting a possible re-entry into the Gulf from the Pacific. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:29, 15 October 2008 (UTC) Remnant low over Honduras - Salak 03:05, 16 October 2008 (UTC) :Gotta love CMC. Damn, this one was close. That ridge built up just enough to shove it into the coast (and then promptly weakened again). Also, I think this one wasn't as well organized as they originally thought. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 05:49, 16 October 2008 (UTC) ::Got to agree with that last part... Still, 15 consecutive named systems (not counting the end of last season of course) is a pretty long run. Any idea if it's a record? Could have been 16, with that system that hit the Carolinas soon after forming. - Salak 07:00, 16 October 2008 (UTC) :::Yes - with caveats. 1933, for example, had 21 consecutive systems of TS or greater strength, but they did not name systems at that time. As a caveat to the caveat, tracking wasn't nearly as good back then as it is now, so it is quite conceivable that there were some depressions breaking up the consecutive storms that simply weren't caught. Albireo 16:29, 16 October 2008 (UTC) ::::Can't count any before the satellite era. In 2005, Tropical Depression Ten breaks a 17 storm stretch in two. If that South Carolina storm back in September is upgraded in post-analysis (as it should be) then 2008's streak would be at 16, a record that would probably be pretty safe. 1969 had 16 "official" duds but probably only a handfull of those were tropical cyclones. 1990 and 1998 were both a perfect 14 for 14. 1995 had two TDs that didn't make it. '96 was a perfect 13 for 13. 2001 was partitioned by two pathetic depressions that were barely TCs, but if 2008 gets the SC storm, 2001 would still fall short. Thus, 2008 appears to hold the record for consecutive named storms as best as we can determine. The only seasons prior to the satellite era that could've exceeded this record are 1933 and 1887. 1916 and 1936 were sufficiantly close that just a few undiscovered storms could challenge the record if they indeed had no duds. -- [[User:SkyFury|Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury''']] 21:56, 16 October 2008 (UTC) :::::Actually, if the September storm gets upgraded in the post-season analysis, it will technically break the streak into two, as post-season upgrades don't get named :) Albireo 16:15, 17 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: North of Venezuela You might be getting tired at all my Cape Verde AoIs, but hey, a lot of them did eventually develop. Most models are developing this once it meets the Caribbean, but it's only expected to be a weak system by then. Nevertheless, it could be worth watching. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:08, 14 October 2008 (UTC) :Hmm. NHC's got it at low risk now, but says slow development is possible. --Patteroast 20:46, 16 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: SE of Bermuda The 57th wave of the season, could potentially develop. 2007Astro'sHurricane :Up as low-risk on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:40, 17 October 2008 (UTC) ::Up as low-risk on NHC again, and what's really scary is, it's not with this system but my latest calculations show 130 km/h gusts for Southern Ontario Sunday evening. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:28, 22 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: East of Cape Cod All models are predicting something out of this, but it will probably be subtropical, extratropical, or a nor'easter. CMC (obviously) has the most extreme forecast, making it fully tropical (Cyclonephase), then making it landfall onto northeastern Nova Scotia at cat. 3 intensity (or maybe it's just predicted to be an extratropical low with warm seclusion). Most models keep it weaker, probably as a subtropical storm, and curving it out to sea, could be interesting to watch. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:28, 16 October 2008 (UTC) :Are you referring to this? If so i think it should be named right now. -Winter123 20:32, 20 October 2008 (UTC) ::LOL, it's only an extratropical system now. Anyway, we in Southern Ontario could get some snow tomorrow. Just in time for Halloween! 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:30, 20 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: South of Bermuda Up as low-risk on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:46, 18 October 2008 (UTC) :No idea why NHC declared this. Never had a chance, just a sheared thunderstorm complex, happens almost daily. -Winter123 20:38, 20 October 2008 (UTC) 91L. INVEST AoI: Western Caribbean Up as low-risk on NHC. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:46, 18 October 2008 (UTC) 91L. INVEST Now an invest, some models predicting it to head toward Florida, UKM run looks scary for Southern Ontario. 2007Astro'sHurricane 18:52, 19 October 2008 (UTC) :Up to medium risk, on the danger graphic. GFDL is still predicting a category 1 landfall in Florida... but most of the other models don't seem to show anything happening. We'll see. --Patteroast 04:54, 20 October 2008 (UTC) ::Most models are agreeing on it to affect Florida. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:43, 20 October 2008 (UTC) :::Unfortunately, 11 people have already been killed by 91L in Honduras. On the contrast, it's snowing in southern Ontario! It has been for the past ten hours, and now it's starting to accumalate. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:55, 21 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: East of Honduras Some intense convection has flared up. 2007Astro'sHurricane 22:41, 19 October 2008 (UTC) :Merged. Please pay attention before you post! -Winter123 20:35, 20 October 2008 (UTC) :Wait, hahah you posted about the same storm just a day ago, then forgot. That's bad. Do you have memory issues? -Winter123 20:37, 20 October 2008 (UTC) ::NOO! Please be more careful when you merge my AoIs. This flared up last night, any previous SW Caribbean systems are now in the Pacific. This one is currently east of Honduras, the 91.L is near Belize. I occasionally have poor memory, but not when it comes to AoIs. I remember all my AoIs and geographical names quite well, thank you. It's subsided by now, and looks like it could merge with 91L, but since 91.L is pulling it north, this might be uncertain. We'll see. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:43, 20 October 2008 (UTC) AoI: SE of Cape Verde ANOTHER Cape Verde system! Development for these are decreasing in probability, however. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:43, 20 October 2008 (UTC)